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 Uutisten kommentit:

Sivut: 1 2 3 4 
Hafisou31. Heinäkuu 2012 klo. 03:12 
Thought, I there is a risk that monetary pocily would become highly volatile in a small open economy if the central bank tried to target something which includes external demand. Take very open small economies like Singapore and Iceland. Here the volatility in GDP is much higher than in domestic demand so if the central banks in Iceland or Singapore tried to target NGDP then it would have to overreact to short-term volatility in net exports. The extreme example would be Iceland where exports are highly volatile. In my view it would be pretty insane to try to counteract swings basically in fish prices by targeting NGDP.
Walid31. Heinäkuu 2012 klo. 09:50 
Joseph, How do you define crieibildty? To me a central bank is credible if the markets (and the general public) expect the central bank to hit the targets it have. The problem of course for the Fed is that the Fed does not have a target. That make it pretty hard to say whether it is credible or not. Another way of saying whether a central bank is credible or not is to look at the predictability of nominal variables: money suppy, velocity, nominal wages, prices, inflation, NGDP, the exchange rates etc. I am pretty sure that if you estimate of example simple AR-models for these variable you will see the error-term in the models has exploded since 2008. I must, however, say I am guessing here. but I am pretty sure I am right maybe a econometrician outthere would try to estimate it?In the case of the ECB the collapse in crieibildty is pretty clear. The ECB has a two-pillar policy targeting directly or indirectly M3 growth and inflation. Judging from market expectation for medium term inflation the crieibildty is not good in fact it has never been this bad. Inflation expectations are well-below the 2% inflation target. In terms of M3 the ECB has normally targeted a reference rate around 4.5% y/y. The actual growth rate on M3 is much below this target . HOWEVER, if the central banks were indeed so credible then the market should fully believe any nominal target they would announce they would meet. So if the Fed is 100% credible and announce that it will increase NGDP by 15% over the coming two years then there should be no problem meeting this target without printing more money. What would happen is the money-velocity would jump, which with an unchange money supply would increase NGDP.During the Great Moderation there was a very high degree of negative correlation between M and V growth. This indicates in view that markets expected the Fed to meet a NGDP and monetary policy became endogenous pretty much in the same way as in a Selgin-White Free Banking model.See here:
Annethitha02. Elokuu 2012 klo. 04:03 
Nominal final sales of domestic prdocut seems a better target to me your suggested sales to domestic purchasers only involves local demand, my suggested sales of domestic prdocut accounts for the demand of the foreign sector. Lets illustrate, local demand grows at a trend target of 5%, but foreign demand takes a slump and is forecasted to grow by 1%: now, if you target sales to domestic purchasers, no action will be taken, but by targeting sales of domestic prdocut the money supply would be increased, the currency would depreciate until foreign demand grows at 5%.
Darma10. Syyskuu 2012 klo. 07:13 
Thought, I there is a risk that monetary pilcoy would become highly volatile in a small open economy if the central bank tried to target something which includes external demand. Take very open small economies like Singapore and Iceland. Here the volatility in GDP is much higher than in domestic demand so if the central banks in Iceland or Singapore tried to target NGDP then it would have to overreact to short-term volatility in net exports. The extreme example would be Iceland where exports are highly volatile. In my view it would be pretty insane to try to counteract swings basically in fish prices by targeting NGDP.
Francis11. Syyskuu 2012 klo. 03:38 
If I were a Tenegae Mutant Ninja Turtle, now I'd say "Kowabunga, dude!"
Kaydi13. Syyskuu 2012 klo. 01:41 
Well done to think of somtehnig like that
Luella14. Joulukuu 2014 klo. 06:37 
Now we know who the sebsnile one is here. Great post!
Luella14. Joulukuu 2014 klo. 06:37 
Now we know who the sebsnile one is here. Great post!
Sonny14. Joulukuu 2014 klo. 20:53 
Arclites like this are an example of quick, helpful answers.
Christian30. Kesäkuu 2015 klo. 00:16 
I'm glad you all had too even though I was not prsenet but I am sure you probably mentioned me from time to time. Hopefully when I get my car paid off and make more money I will probably attend the next meeting who knows I could have a classic Mustang by then.
Sivut: 1 2 3 4 




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